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By Shah Gilani, Contributing Editor, Money Morning
Sooner or later, mounting losses on commercial real estate could crash through the market's 2009 optimism and send the economy and stocks into a double-dip downturn.
The major problem is that lawmakers and regulators are setting up investors into believing that commercial real estate (CRE) losses are being effectively addressed. The truth is that escalating losses are being hidden as part of a campaign of optimism in a desperate gamble that a robustly reviving economy will save the day.
To protect yourself from another investment beating, here's what you need to know.
Two weeks ago, a bipartisan group of 79 members from the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The lawmakers want the public to know that they are concerned that the "commercial-real-estate industry has the potential to infect our economy and slow a recovery," according to Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski, D-Pa.
Kanjorski, the chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs)- which includes the likes of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) – says it's the administration's responsibility to make sure that happens. "The Treasury and Federal Reserve now must take needed and urgent action to stave off a potentially devastating wave of commercial real estate foreclosures and bank losses," Kanjorski said.
So in keeping with how effectively overseen and transparent our capital markets, insurance industry and GSE institutions are, the lawmakers want more accounting gimmickry to be made available to banks that hold commercial-real-estate assets. The lawmakers are concerned that banks may be forced by some regulators to write down the value of performing loans, even when payments are current. And these elected officials want more latitude for banks to manipulate recently issued CRE loan-modification guidelines.
Just what recently issued CRE loan modification guidelines are we referring to?
The tooth fairy commeth. On Oct. 30, bank, thrift and credit-union regulators very quietly gave lenders flexibility in how they classify distressed commercial mortgages. Banks can now slice distressed loans into performing and non-performing loans, and institutions will magically be able to reduce the total reserves set aside for non-performing loans.
For example, let's assume that a developer borrowed to build a shopping mall, but only one tenant leased space in the finished project. Cash flow from the project would be insufficient to service the loan, meaning the lending bank would have to set aside reserves against the total loan. Under the new guidelines, however, the mall loan actually could be carved into two loans – a performing loan representing the rented space, and a non-performing loan that represents the empty space.
Theoretically, with fewer reserves having to be set aside, bank balance sheets would look better, leaving lenders with more cash available for loans. But the reality might be very different. Granted, this accounting hocus-pocus might well stave off some bank failures. But with the overhang of non-performing loans still on their books, will those banks really be eager to lend out their precious cash?
That's not the only concern, either. The fact that lawmakers don't want to force banks to write down "performing loans" should be a cause for concern among investors. It's like the riddle: If an airplane crashes exactly on the border of two states, where do you bury the survivors? Hint … you don't bury survivors. And, you don't have to write down performing loans – unless, of course, they're not really "performing."
What's really happening with performing loans is a game called "extend and pretend." When most banks make commercial loans they include an "interest reserve." The reserve amount is part of the total loan, and it is there so that banks can pay themselves their interest until the project generates enough cash flow to start paying interest and principal.
The unvarnished truth is that innumerable commercial loans are in distress right now because projects aren't being finished. And if they are , tenants aren't leasing. So rather than write down the loans, banks are extending the terms of the debt with more interest reserves included so they can continue to classify the loans as "performing."
Hiding behind the extend-and-pretend game is the dark reality that property values have declined at an alarming rate – racing ahead of the rate at which banks are writing down these loans.
Nor is that the only concern. Because interest reserves do not repay any of the loan principal, there is no amortization on these debts. In other words, banks are extending loans that they would never make now, because borrowers are already grossly upside-down.
But let's be real: There isn't enough time on any clock to ever win that race.
Why do I say that? Because, in order for the United States to rebound to a full-employment rate of at least 5%, the nation's economy would have to create 200,000 jobs per month – for seven years.
Although all the big banks hold significant amounts of underperforming-commercial-
Regional and local community banks have as much as 80% of their balance sheets tied up in commercial real estate, and very few other sources of significant fee income to offset CRE losses.
It's not the too-big-to-fail banks that are lending to consumers; they're too busy catering to huge corporations, enslaving the credit card borrowers they pressed into servitude with low teaser rates, and pandering to lawmakers to preserve their monopolies and their outrageous executive compensation packages.
It's the regional and community banks that lend to individuals and small businesses that are sinking fast under the weight of CRE. How are they going to be the credit providers to consumers and the backers of the small businesses we are counting on to create jobs for the country's 18 million unemployed?
Lawmakers and regulators expect to buy time for the economy to grow in order to drive up commercial-real-estate prices and save the banks that are threatened. But their rescue vehicle of choice is the banking sector that is foundering because of the growing gale of commercial-real-estate losses. So please forgive me if I label these Washington insiders as grossly incompetent, self-serving and deluded.
If we continue to chart this course, we're headed right for a double-dip downturn in the economy and in the stock market.
But there is a way out.
First, break up all the too-big-to-fail banks into "bad banks" by saddling them with all the bad bank loans. Don't worry: It won't take long for those institutions to discover how to make money from these non-performing loans.
Let these "new" institutions keep their proprietary trading desks so they can steal money from the big corporations and investment banking clients they front-run.
Cap all compensation for the top 25% of earners at those banks. And make these top-tier executives stay and work at their new employer for seven years, which is the same amount of time it takes to discharge a bankruptcy. That's only fair since bankruptcy is where these institutions force credit-card borrowers after ripping them off with hidden, retroactive fees and usurious interest rates. Phase out all taxpayer backing over the same seven years. Limit each bank's leverage and require them to add equity capital on a pre-set ratio relative to balance-sheet risk.
Spin off all big-bank credit-card operations into four regionally based trusts and make them operate as not-for-profit entities. Cap interest rates at some nationally set level above the prime rate, and make credit limits a function of income, assets and credit history. While we're at it, only charge merchants and credit-card users 50 cents each per any transaction.
Make community banks "good banks" by spreading the big banks performing loans across their balance sheets so banking is more "localized" and community-centric. Limit the size they can grow to – period. If there's additional business to be had in a particular locale, let another bank open up and help drive down the cost of services.
Create a compensation arrangement for bankers that rewards them generously for creating jobs, improving standards of living in their communities and running their banks profitably relative to standardized risk metrics.
As far as big loans and securitizing and selling asset-backed pools, make the banks syndicate and spread risks between themselves, all of them. They'll actually become experts in risk management as opposed to paying lip service to schemes like Value at Risk.
I'd like to say that I'm kidding, and that everything will work out just fine if we do nothing. But the reality is that only a comprehensive overhaul of banking regulations will save the U.S. economy and stock market from significant pain. Hiding behind accounting gimmickry is just another tarp being thrown over our problems by same special interests that got us into this mess in the first place.
Guest Post by Paula Drum
Often, the cheer of the holiday season can be all consuming and shoppers forget that unlike Santa, their budgets are real. The exhilarating high of making a memorable December is quickly forgotten when the next year’s financial hangover settles into our banking accounts.
So what can you do to rebound from the holidays and start anew this year?
This post will provide suggestions to those relying on credit to create a budgeting plan. We’ll begin by taking a look at one potential cause for a financial hangover, and then discuss how to start a credit budgeting plan to alleviate and prevent future financial hangovers.
One catalyst for a financial hangover takes the form of credit purchases. Evaluating the total price paid for credit purchases is an area that people often neglect when using plastic. If you don’t pay off your credit card bills in full every month, then you are financing your purchases and need to add in the interest costs to your budget. Budgeting credit purchases based solely on the price paid during checkout can put you in a difficult financial position.
If you are a person that relies on credit, you should plan a 2010 credit budget. To create a successful plan, it is imperative that you take the time to research total purchase cost, which includes the retail price plus interest accrued over time. To avoid creating “perma-debt” this credit budget must outline both the total cost of your purchases and how long it will take you to pay off the debt. Before you decide to make a credit purchase, follow these steps:
Of course your total credit card payment will depend on your particular card and the balance you currently have on your card. But you can estimate your real purchase price with interest to make an informed decision. Try a loan calculator at a site like Bankrate.com. After all a credit card line is a form of a loan. Note that many calculators list the length of time in years. If you plan on paying off the loan in less than 12 months you’ll need to convert it to a fraction of a year (4 months divided by 12 months =.33)
Using the Bankrate.com loan calculator, the total cost to pay for this purchase over four months with a 14.9% interest rate is $226.81 broken into four monthly payments of $57.27.
Making good spending decisions depends on having the right information. By creating a credit budgeting plan, you’ll have complete transparency regarding the total cost of using credit and know exactly when you’ll have a zero balance.
Unfortunately, being able to calculate your total cost plus interest may not always be convenient when shopping. One avenue where you may find a better deal is by researching retailers with alternative payment plans, such as Gettington.com, that provide a choice of payment plans along with a clear breakdown of a total purchase cost and interest paid before you make a purchase. Transparency in understanding your total cost before you make your purchase enables you to make better budget decisions.
Remember: if you’re hungover, you take aspirin, have a greasy breakfast, get hydrated and sometimes swear that you’ll never do that again! Treat a financial hangover the same way. By creating a credit budget and researching the Web, you’ll be on the road to recovery and well-equipped to avoid future credit headaches.
How do you plan to budget credit purchases in 2010?
Paula Drum is General Manager of Gettington.com, an e-commerce retailer that provides three payment options to help customers budget purchases that fit their individual financial needs.
It's interesting to note that most ID theft does not occur online; rather, it's in the physical world. Things like discarded mail, stealing your credit card info, and stealing your wallet. Sad but true.
If you're really concerned about online ID theft, get a really good security program like Trend Micro Internet Security Pro and a password manager like LastPass or RoboForm. Anonymizer is a good program for covering your online tracks.
For the most comprehensive ID theft prevention available, check out LifeLock.
Did you know that 40 percent of couples wait until they are engaged to discuss their finances? According to a recent FICO survey, some even wait a full year after they’re married – likely a statistic that supports the fact that ½ of all marriages, these days, end in divorce!
FICO’s survey also found:
With survey findings like these facing Valentine’s Day, FICO’s Credit Cupid has solutions which will help your FICO scores in tip-top shape, see below:
1) Maintain a good history of paying bills on time. Payment history is the most important component of your FICO score. People with a long history of paying their bills on time, are expected by lenders to continue their good payment pattern, and will be more willing to extend credit in the future.
2) Encourage good spending habits from your partner. Everyone has their own credit report and FICO score; when couples begin applying for credit together their shared accounts affect both FICO scores. This is why it’s doubly important to pay on time when you’re responsible for a shared account.
3) Don’t overspend on your lover. While it’s easy to get caught up in buying gifts for your sweetheart, spend within your means. If you have a lot of debt, adding more debt or maxing out your credit cards can hurt your FICO score – and potentially your relationship.
4) Don’t apply for credit you don’t need. Your FICO score not only considers the existing credit accounts on your credit report, but also applications for new credit. Applying for many new accounts in a short amount of time can be a sign of looming financial problems, which can hurt your FICO score.
5) Discuss finances with your partner. Your partner’s financial burdens can ultimately affect your credit if you feel compelled to help out with their debts and obligations. Have an honest financial discussion early and avoid surprises later!
America’s Founding Fathers were afraid of any concentration of power in the republic. They were particularly afraid that banking interests could hijack our fledgling democracy.
And yet today, 234 years later, our Founding Fathers’ worst fears have come true. Wall Street’s stranglehold on the economy threatens our very prosperity, and the future of a truly democratic republic.
It’s high time we address the truth about Wall Street’s tyranny and set a course for a more secure economic future – one that’s anchored by a safe banking system, not a system rigged by banks.
This is a good article that delves into the banking and financial system crisis a little deeper than most I’ve seen. It’s a bitingly sarcastic look at what has happened over the past decade (or so).